It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
